Sunday, February 12, 2012

Republican Party Returns To Its Base "Culture War" Focus

The 2012 election was supposed to be about jobs and the economy and, though that will still be central, the Republican Party has returned to its base "culture war" issues.

Proposition 8! Birth control! Susan G. Komen and Planned Parenthood!

Increasingly the man of the moment seems to be GOP culture warrior Rick Santorum, not Mitt Romney, although Romney is also trying to capitalize on hard right "culture war" issues, too.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum (Penn.), Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, the top three 2012 GOP presidential candidates, have committed to a "personhood" constitutional amendment that would outlaw most common contraceptive choices available to women. Mother Jones reports that Republicans in the U.S. Congress also want to pass a federal Personhood Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. That amendment would effectively reverse the 1965 Griswold v. Connecticut Supreme Court finding that Americans have a fundamental right to use birth control.

Public Policy Polling has a pretty convincing rundown of the political ramifications of the contraception installment of the various "culture war" controversies:

Republican agitating on this issue could cause themselves trouble at the polls this year. 40% of voters say Mitt Romney’s stance makes them less likely to vote for him, while only 23% consider it a positive. With the Catholic over sample [of almost 400 Catholics] it’s 46% less likely and 28% more likely. And Congressional Republicans are imperiling themselves as well. 58% of voters oppose them trying to take the benefit away, while only 33% are supportive.
Republicans will win this fall if they can convince voters that the economy stinks and it’s Barack Obama’s fault and putting them in power will fix the problem. If they want to make it about social issues and [outlawing contraceptives for all, verses] making it easy and affordable for women to access birth control, Democrats win.

Bolstered by sweeping victories in Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado this past Tuesday, Rick Santorum, the GOP's most ardent culture warrior, has taken a commanding lead over the rest of the Republican candidates in the latest Public Policy Polling survey.

Santorum has an astounding 15 point lead over his closest opponent, Mitt Romney, 38% to 23%. Newt Gingrich is in third with 17%, and Ron Paul is still languishing in last place with 13%. According to PPP,

“Santorum is now completely dominating with several key segments of the electorate, especially the most right leaning parts of the party. With those describing themselves as ‘very conservative,’ he’s now winning a majority of voters at 53% to 20% for Gingrich and 15% for Romney. Santorum gets a majority with Tea Party voters as well at 51% to 24% for Gingrich and 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he falls just short of a majority with 45% to 21% for Gingrich and 18% for Romney.”

While the GOP's culture warriors are winning points with the GOP's hard right cultural conservatives, they may be turning off the rest of the American electorate - including other Republican voters. A poll recently released by a conservative publication found that a large number of Republicans and conservatives are likely to vote for President Barack Obama.

The survey, conducted by Wenzel Strategies for World Net Daily, showed that one in five Republicans are leaning towards or would “definitely” re-elect the current president.

In contests against former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Obama got more than 20 percent of support from Republicans. In a match up with Texas Congressman Ron Paul, 19 percent of Republicans chose the president.

Raw Story:

“Obama has largely avoided the political limelight while the GOP candidates savage each other with increasing intensity. Second, a smattering of evidence indicates that the economy is getting a little better, which helps the White House in the eyes of the voters,” pollster Fritz Wenzel told World Net Daily. “The bloody fight for the Republican presidential nomination – by most estimations the nastiest GOP fight in memory – has really hurt the images of the challengers in the eyes of both Republicans and, especially, independent voters. For Republicans, each candidate carries with them now some taint that cannot be ignored.”

“What must be particularly alarming to every Republican campaign regarding this nasty fight is that, even among those who say they think the nation is heading in the wrong direction, Obama still wins at least 20 percent support in head-to-head match-ups against the four remaining Republicans, and among those who said they were unsure about the overall direction of the nation, Obama wins by overwhelming percentages,” he added.

“Obama has largely avoided the political limelight while the GOP candidates savage each other with increasing intensity. Second, a smattering of evidence indicates that the economy is getting a little better, which helps the White House in the eyes of the voters,” pollster Fritz Wenzel told World Net Daily. “[T]he bloody fight for the Republican presidential nomination – by most estimations the nastiest GOP fight in memory – has really hurt the images of the challengers in the eyes of both Republicans and, especially, independent voters. For Republicans, each candidate carries with them now some taint that cannot be ignored.”

“What must be particularly alarming to every Republican campaign regarding this nasty fight is that, even among those who say they think the nation is heading in the wrong direction, Obama still wins at least 20 percent support in head-to-head match-ups against the four remaining Republicans, and among those who said they were unsure about the overall direction of the nation, Obama wins by overwhelming percentages,” he added.

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